The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) has unveiled a detailed plan focused on ensuring safe, secure, and reliable power system operations during critical seasonal variations anticipated to occur later this year. This action follows their suo-motu petition initiated in October 2024 aimed at addressing potential surges in power demand and mitigating risks.
In response to the growing challenges posed by rapid demand increases, CERC has undertaken an extensive review, holding consultations with Regional Load Despatch Centres (RLDCs), State Load Despatch Centres (SLDCs), and other stakeholders. Meetings were held across various regional centres, including Bengaluru, Mumbai, Kolkata, Guwahati, and New Delhi, to assess preparedness, review operational planning, and develop contingency measures to manage the expected high demand period.
Power Supply and Demand Forecasts
According to the resource adequacy assessment carried out by the National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC), there is an anticipated significant surge in electricity demand between March and May 2025. Several states, including Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, are projected to face notable shortages, particularly during evening peak hours. For example, Maharashtra may experience peak shortages of up to 6906 MW during April evenings, underscoring the necessity for effective resource planning and procurement strategies.
Addressing Manpower Shortages
The report highlights substantial manpower shortages in various SLDCs, particularly in Rajasthan, Haryana, and Chhattisgarh. These states have been urged to expedite staffing to enhance operational efficiency, with Rajasthan currently staffed at only 85% of required workforce levels. CERC recommends states promptly seek approval from respective State Electricity Regulatory Commissions for additional manpower as stipulated under Ministry of Power (MoP) guidelines.
Renewable Energy Integration
Significant emphasis has been placed on the forecasting and integration of renewable energy sources. Many states, including Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Gujarat, have made considerable strides in renewable energy forecasting. CERC emphasized the importance of further improving forecasting accuracy through advanced forecasting tools and encouraged states to adopt AI and Machine Learning for improved prediction models.
Reserve Capacity Concerns
The Commission underscored critical shortcomings in maintaining adequate reserves. Many states are currently not meeting the reserve margins recommended by NLDC, putting additional stress on grid operations. States have been advised to allocate specific generation units or capacity as reserves that can be dispatched under contingency conditions only, ensuring that such reserves are not regularly scheduled.
Implementation of the SAMAST Scheme
The SAMAST (Scheduling, Accounting, Metering, and Settlement of Transactions in Electricity) scheme’s implementation remains varied across states. While states like Gujarat and Maharashtra have fully operationalized the scheme, others such as Chhattisgarh and Goa are in advanced stages of implementation. CERC recommended prompt completion of this framework, crucial for improving grid operation transparency and reliability.
Actionable Steps Forward
CERC has directed all states to immediately undertake robust power procurement planning, avoiding last-minute reliance on Real-Time Markets (RTM), except in genuine contingencies. Additionally, states were instructed to expedite the process of upgrading thermal plants to achieve the Minimum Turndown Level (MTL) of 55%, ensuring greater flexibility in managing fluctuations in demand and renewable energy supply.
In conclusion, the report and the ensuing directives from CERC provide a structured roadmap for the Indian power system to handle expected demand surges, ensuring uninterrupted electricity supply and maintaining grid stability during critical periods.
